Protest Is the New Normal: 1.18M Events Reshape Political Risk Assessment

Why it matters

Protest volume has changed risk calculus.

Counter-signals

• Protestos incluem desde manifestações pacíficas até bloqueios — nem todos representam risco operacional equivalente(event_classification)
• A metodologia ACLED pode sobre-representar protestos por serem mais visíveis que outros tipos de conflito(methodology)

Evidence

• 316.492 protestos em 814.149 eventos ACLED = 38,9% do total(security_events)
• Top 3 países: México (33.609), Índia (33.322), Brasil (30.112)(security_events)

Limitations

• sample_n uses full-table count (no topic-specific recipe defined); may overstate coverage