While Rio de Janeiro leads in absolute number of armed violence events (130 in 30 days), Bahia shows a meaningfully higher fatality rate per event (0.84 vs 0.51). This suggests different event composition: Bahia has proportionally more homicides and fewer property-related incidents. Pernambuco (0.81) and Pará (0.80) also show higher per-event fatality rates than RJ. These rates should be tracked monthly to distinguish structural patterns from seasonal variation. Coverage: 4 states only.

Higher fatality rate may reflect different event composition, not more severe violence

RJ: 130 events, 66 fatalities (0.51/event)

BA: 100 events, 84 fatalities (0.84/event)

PE: 90 events, 73 fatalities (0.81/event)

PA: 25 events, 20 fatalities (0.80/event)

Rio de Janeiro Leads in Events but Bahia Has Higher Fatality Rate per Event

Why it matters

Counter-signals

Evidence