Artificial intelligence trends: what the data shows
AI hype is abundant. Real signals are rare. VAIA crosses patents, hiring, GitHub repositories and investments to distinguish trend from narrative.
What real AI trends are
A real AI trend appears in multiple independent sources simultaneously: it grows in scientific papers, gains job openings, accumulates GitHub repositories and produces registered patents. A narrative, by contrast, dominates headlines without leaving traces in hiring or technical adoption data.
VAIA monitors 38,276 technology signals to find where the two converge — and where they diverge. Divergence is usually the most valuable signal.
Recent VAIA signals
VAIA editorial signals: tech-patent-health (85), strat-ai-hype-bubble (90), strat-ml-paradox (92), strat-defense-tech-capital-2026 (91). Sources: USPTO, NVD, job portals, GitHub.
Why distinguishing trend from narrative matters
Capital goes where there is convergence
When patents, hiring and GitHub converge on an area (e.g., efficient inference, agents), it signals sustainable investment. When only the narrative grows, the risk of rapid capital reallocation increases.
Hiring reveals what companies really believe
Companies hire based on operational conviction, not marketing. When Anthropic has 657 open positions versus 38 at OpenAI — despite fewer Hacker News mentions — that says something about where real work is happening.
Defense-Tech changes AI geopolitics
Capital flowing to Defense-Tech is not just a sector data point — it redefines which AI problems will be prioritized, which talents will be recruited and what ethical standards will prevail.
What to track in AI trends
- →Paper/job ratio by specialization (decreasing in inference, growing in AI security) — indicates where the market is accelerating.
- →Patents filed: if AI continues to surpass Health Tech or if there is a sector reversal.
- →HN attention vs jobs ratio per company: identifies who is building silently (high hiring, low media) vs. who is doing marketing.
- →GitHub repos for model efficiency/compression vs foundation models: which category grows faster.
- →Venture capital destination: Defense-Tech vs civil AI vs AI infrastructure (chips, cloud) proportion.
Related editorial signals
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