Security

Known exploitation, probabilistic risk and composition shifts that change triage.

NVD, CISA KEV and FIRST EPSS remain distinct authorities.
This page answers

What deserves triage first — and why?

Known exploitation (KEV), estimated probability (EPSS), potential impact (CVSS) and weakness composition remain separate. The page helps prioritize investigation; it does not turn probability into proof of exploitation.

Prioritize remediationValidate exposureSeparate certainty from probability
Triage now

What to investigate first

First: vulnerabilities with known exploitation in CISA KEV. Then: HIGH/CRITICAL outside KEV with EPSS ≥ 50%. Novelty determines order before EPSS and CVSS — with no invented score.

How the queue is ordered

Operational priority from NVD × CISA KEV × FIRST EPSS. The first band is known exploitation; the second is high probability without KEV confirmation. Order within each band, with no invented score: first by novelty window (≤30d, ≤90d, ≤1y, earlier — a newly added KEV counts as novelty), then by EPSS, then by CVSS. High-EPSS classics stay visible but no longer hold the top by age alone.

673 KEV confirmed422 EPSS ≥ 50% outside KEVsnapshot Oct 11, 2026Open full EPSS queue →
KEV · exploited
CRITICAL · 10.0
EPSS99.5%
KEV since Oct 8, 2026
classic
CISA: mitigate or discontinue the product
CISA due date (US federal agencies): Oct 11, 2026
KEV · exploited
CVE-2015-5477
CWE-19 · CWE-617
HIGH · 7.5
EPSS99.4%
KEV since Oct 8, 2026
classic
CISA: mitigate or discontinue the product
CISA due date (US federal agencies): Oct 11, 2026
KEV · exploited
HIGH · 8.1
EPSS96.1%
KEV since Oct 8, 2026
classic
CISA: mitigate or discontinue the product
CISA due date (US federal agencies): Oct 11, 2026
KEV · exploited
CRITICAL · 9.1
EPSS87.5%
KEV since Sep 24, 2026
CISA: mitigate or discontinue the product
CISA due date (US federal agencies): Sep 27, 2026
KEV · exploited
HIGH · 8.1
EPSS40.0%
KEV since Sep 25, 2026
CISA: mitigate or discontinue the product
CISA due date (US federal agencies): Sep 28, 2026
Shift in flaw types

One type of flaw appears more often among cases with a high chance of attack

CWE-119 appears in 83 of 391 · 21.2% HIGH/CRITICAL CVEs with an identified CWE and EPSS ≥ 50% outside KEV, versus 39 of 568 · 6.9% comparable KEV CVEs. This is a composition difference, not a forecast of KEV entry.

Bars: share of comparable CVEs that carry CWE-119 in each group (base in parentheses).
EPSS ≥ 50% outside KEV83 of 391 · 21.2%
CISA KEV39 of 568 · 6.9%
ratio 3.09×q (BH) = 1.47e-927 CWE testedBH-FDR ≤ 1%
Other differences that cleared the bar
CWE-264
11 of 391 · 2.8% vs 2 of 568 · 0.4%
7.99×
q (BH) = 0.007
CWE-416
8 of 391 · 2.0% vs 37 of 568 · 6.5%
0.31×
q (BH) = 0.007
CWE-20
42 of 391 · 10.7% vs 29 of 568 · 5.1%
2.10×
q (BH) = 0.007
CWE-787
22 of 391 · 5.6% vs 67 of 568 · 11.8%
0.48×
q (BH) = 0.007

Severity of new vulnerabilities · 30d

Severity describes potential impact; priority comes from crossing it with known exploitation and probability.

Critical
1,422
High
5,519
Medium
4,861
Low
1,022
No CVSS
1,304
Other
2

Rows add up to 14,130 CVEs published in 30 days · volume context, not risk ranking. “No CVSS”: NVD records not yet scored for severity.

Most severe flaws with the highest chance of attack

Severity (CVSS) vs predicted exploitation probability (EPSS). KEV (red) is confirmed exploitation.

Flaws already being used in attacks

Recent additions to the CISA KEV catalog, with real publication date when available.

Security jobs · 90d
222
KEVs added · 30d
30
Method: KEV identifies known exploitation; EPSS estimates probability; the CWE comparison uses a two-proportion z-test with Benjamini–Hochberg correction. Association does not imply causation or future KEV inclusion. Triage order within each band is a deterministic policy over observable facts, with no weighted score: (1) novelty window — the most recent of NVD publication and first KEV dateAdded, bucketed ≤30d / ≤90d / ≤1y / earlier, most recent first; (2) EPSS; (3) CVSS; (4) CVE id as a stable tie-break. A newly added KEV for an old CVE counts as operational novelty. KEV always precedes the probabilistic band; no CVE is removed for being old.